? What happens next
The UAM market provides potential a multitude of transport or service modes. In terms of entry into service (EIS), small cargo platforms, that do not need commercial-type certification are expected to enter the market first.
The first commercially available vehicles for larger passenger or cargo operations are expected to have type certification around 2024. A meaningful production will follow accordingly. A solid regulatory framework and certification will be a key element of a successful transition into the commercial phase.
German cities, as of today offer a solid ground infrastructure with good alternative modes of transport. AAM is expected to be initially used in areas with poor infrastructure or transportation.
Areas and countries with poor infrastructure and gridlocked and congested traffic systems will be expected to adopt AAM much faster and with greater initial benefits.
The German AAM Market
Currently, all eVTOL platforms are in the testing and certification process. The most advanced eVTOL platforms are currently running through a testing and certification process. Until now, however, there is a lack of suitable ground infrastructure that meets the necessary prerequisites for AAM. The first commercial flights with (piloted) eVTOLs in Germany are expected earliest in 2024. Cargo flights will be preferred in the beginning, as the processes are already defined. Commercially profitable business models are expected by 2030. A huge jump in service readiness is expected when eVTOLs start connecting small airfields with commercial airports and urban regions. Many platforms produced in Germany will be exported. That means that the AAM industry in Germany is larger than the local market.
Next to “conventional” air mobility, Advanced Air Mobility helps to save time in urban and regional transport of persons and goods using quiet, electrically powered, and/or pilotless VTOL platforms. To achieve this, a lot of existing and new elements need to be created and aligned to build and integrate this ecosystem.
About 5% of those who have concepts for AAM platforms are in the preliminary test phase, which is considered a necessity for a successful certification process. VTOL-type certification differs from conventional rotorcraft or fixed-wing aircraft. EASA and FAA show different approaches for the VTOL certification.
In total, eVTOL manufacturers collected investments with more than $4 billion USD in 2021 – currently, most of this is used for product development and certification.
Most of the revenue will be created in the services category, e.g. platform operation and infrastructure. It is expected that 54% of the revenue will be generated with passenger transports in 2040.
From UAM Vertiport: Demand Analysis v1.4, Drone Industry Insights, June 28th 2023